Rootstock Growth says AI assistants inflate new customer value

Rootstock Growth found that AI assistants often give wildly inflated estimates for what a new customer is worth, including $15,340 for a new HVAC customer and $10,000 for a new dental patient. The company says those figures do not match measured first-year spending across 39 local businesses, a gap that could push owners to overspend on marketing.

Why it matters: - Small business owners can build budgets and marketing plans around customer-value estimates that are far too high. - Rootstock Growth says inflated AI answers could lead an HVAC, dental or other local business to spend as if every new customer is worth thousands more than first-year revenue actually supports. - The research covers 39 local businesses and gives owners a way to compare customer value by trade before making spending decisions.

What happened: - Rootstock Growth published a guide today on first-year customer value for 39 local businesses. - In November 2026, 5 of 8 AI assistant answers gave $15,340 as the value of a new HVAC customer. - In the same test, 5 of 8 AI assistant answers gave $10,000 for a new dental patient. - Rootstock Growth says neither figure came from measured customer spending.

The details: - A new HVAC customer spends $375 on a repair visit or $8,350 on a system installation in the first year, Rootstock Growth found. - A new dental patient spends $887 a year. - The guide, "What Is a New Customer Worth? First-Year Value for 39 Local Businesses (2026)," includes HVAC, plumbing, roofing, dental practices, law firms, pest control and pool service. - First-year value is defined as the typical first job multiplied by the number of times a customer buys in a year. - The median first-year value across the 39 businesses is $985. - Fifteen of the 39 businesses are worth under $500 in the first year. - Nine of the 39 businesses are worth $5,000 or more in the first year. - An HVAC install customer is worth 22 times a repair customer. - A roof repair is worth $4,699, while a roof replacement is worth $17,631, using insurance-claim estimates. - The median value is $945 for the 8 businesses whose customers buy more than once a year. - The median value is $985 for the 31 businesses built on one-time jobs. - A pest control customer is worth $836 in year one and about $2,051 over three years. - Across 29 home service types, the median new customer is worth $1,368 in the first year. - Exterior and outdoor work runs $5,730 in year-one value. - Home trades and repair run $313 in year-one value.

Between the lines: - The $15,340 HVAC figure is traced to a 2026 marketing analysis that gives no source and links to a 2025 agency post calling the number proprietary data without showing a method. - The $10,000 dental figure traces to a 2014 article that calls its own numbers hypothetical and assumes a patient stays 20 years. - A larger $24,000 version of the dental number is about three-quarters assumed referrals. - The pattern suggests AI assistants may be surfacing repeated web claims without checking whether the underlying math is measured or hypothetical. - Jonathan D. Byrd I, founder of Rootstock Growth, said an owner who believes every new customer is worth $15,340 may spend to match that figure even when the first job is a $375 repair call. - Byrd said the important number is what customers spend in their first year, and that the company compared 39 businesses so owners can verify a figure before using it in a budget.

What's next: - The full table of 39 businesses is available as a free CSV under a Creative Commons Attribution license. - The ranked chart is free to republish with credit to Rootstock Growth. - Trade-level figures are available on the guide page, one section per business: More information. - Rootstock Growth says source lists for any figure are available on request. - Jonathan D. Byrd I is available for interviews. - Rootstock Growth says the guide is part of its broader work helping local businesses with marketing, sales process, CRM, automation and AI tools.

The bottom line: - AI-generated customer-value estimates can be dramatically overstated, and Rootstock Growth’s data suggests local businesses should anchor spending to measured first-year revenue, not broad online answers.